Estimating dyad association probability under imperfect and heterogeneous detection

In animal behaviour studies, association indices estimate the proportion of time two individuals (i.e. a dyad) spend in association. In terms of dyads, all association indices can be interpreted as estimators of the probability that a dyad is associated. However, traditional indices rely on the assumptions that the probability to detect a particular individual (p) is either approximately one and/or homogeneous between associated and not associated individuals. Based on marked individuals we develop a likelihood based model to estimate the probability a dyad is associated (ψ) accounting for p < 1 and possibly varying between associated and not associated individuals. The proposed likelihood based model allows for both individual and dyadic missing observations. In addition, the model can easily be extended to incorporate covariate information for modeling p and ψ. A simulation study showed that the likelihood based model approach yield reasonably unbiased estimates, even for low and heterogeneous individual detection probabilities, while, in contrast, traditional indices showed moderate to strong biases. The application of the proposed approach is illustrated using a real data set collected from a population of Commerson's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus commersonii) in Patagonia Argentina. Finally, we discuss possible extensions of the proposed model and its applicability in animal behaviour and ecological studies.     

川西高原河流水体CDOM的光化学降解特性

川西高原部分河流溶解性有机碳(DOC)含量极高,因有色溶解性有机质(CDOM)具有独特的光学特性,其光降解特征与规律对于分析高寒区天然水体DOC动态及区域水-陆碳循环具有重要的环境意义.本文选取川西高原两种主要地貌类型的河流共5条,即高山峡谷区河流杂谷脑河、抚边河及岷江,丘状高原区河流白河、黑河,对河流水体CDOM三维荧光光谱(EEMs)与紫外-可见光吸收光谱(UV-Vis)采用平行因子分析(PARAFAC)与二维相关光谱(2D-COS)进行分析.结果表明:①白河和黑河CDOM的5 d降解率分别为64. 85%和63. 43%,光降解速率常数分别为0. 167 d-1和0. 173 d-1;抚边河CDOM浓度低(0. 71 m-1)光降解现象不明显,杂谷脑河和岷江CDOM光降解行为较为复杂;②在光降解过程中,除岷江外其余4条河流荧光溶解性有机质(FDOM)内源特征(FI)逐渐减弱,黑河和白河CDOM芳香性、疏水性特征(SUVA254和SUVA260)及腐殖化程度(HIXa)逐渐降低;③川西高原5条河流中FDOM组分均呈2类4个组分,即C1(275/310 nm,类酪氨酸)、C2 [280(250)/400 nm,UVA类腐殖质]和C3(255/440 nm,UVA类腐殖质)、C4[270(360)/492 nm,UVA类腐殖质],类腐殖质FDOM较易光降解;④5条河流中UVA类腐殖质FDOM(尤其是500 nm发射波段)光降解反应先于类酪氨酸物质;丘状高原河流中UVA类腐殖质FDOM对于光照的敏感度大于高山峡谷区河流;⑤白河的主成分分析中识别出了2个因子,解释了这些参数变化的87. 28%,反映了光降解过程对于CDOM特征、荧光组分等方面的影响.     

3D打印技术在固体废弃物资源循环中的应用

打印材料是限制3D打印技术发展和推广应用的瓶颈问题,目前已经发现部分固体废弃物与3D打印的契合度很高,可以用于制备3D打印材料.本文综述了4类可以用于3D打印的固体废弃物,包括硅铝基废弃物、农林废弃物、废旧塑料和废旧金属,着重讨论了这4类废弃物制备3D打印材料的方法以及废弃物的添加对原打印材料造成的影响,同时分析了当前废弃物制备3D打印材料需要解决的问题,并对废弃物基3D打印材料的发展趋势进行了展望.     

重污染天气应对“绩效分级、差异化管控”措施首次实践效果后评估

为提高重污染天气应对的科学性和精准度,2019年7月生态环境部制定重污染天气应对“绩效分级、差异化管控”措施.为应对9月底至10月初的重污染过程,京津冀及周边共68个城市启动重污染预警,该措施得以首次实践.通过时间序列断点回归方法对该措施效果进行评估发现,空气质量改善存在滞后的现象,SO₂、 NO₂和CO这3个气态污染物改善速度较快,对涉及二次生成的O₃和PM_2.5两个污染物见效速度相对较慢. 10月1日恰逢在北京举办庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年阅兵式,对10月1日当天进行评估,发现与假如不采取措施的情形相比,重污染应急措施使北京市PM_2.5、 NO₂和CO日均浓度显著下降,下降幅度分别为54.1%、 62.4%和25.8%.如果不采取重污染应急措施,北京10月1日上午可能出现中重度污染,但实际上空气质量保持在良的水平.区域启动预警的68城市PM_2.5、 PM₁₀、 NO₂、 SO     

静脉产业类生态工业园区标准的研究

以静脉产业和静脉产业类生态工业园区的基本概念为基础,深入分析了我国建立静脉产业类生态工业园区标准的重要意义. 选取经济发展、资源循环与利用、污染控制和园区管理4个方面共20个指标,构成静脉产业类生态工业园区评价指标体系,旨在全面、准确地反映静脉产业类生态工业园区的建设水平. 经过综合分析,确定采用层次分析(AHP)法对评价指标体系进行权重计算. 根据权重分析结果可得出如下结论:静脉产业类生态工业园区的建设重点应为提高资源循环利用率和保障环境安全,污染控制以固体废物的安全处置为主. 最后,对该评价指标体系进行了可行性分析,该方法所设定的各项指标在经济上、技术上、可操作性上都是可行的. 依据该评价方法,制定了国家《静脉产业类生态工业园区标准》.      

An individual-based model to study the reproduction of egg bearing copepods: Application to Eurytemora affinis (Copepoda Calanoida) from the Seine estuary,France

Limited empirical studies have elucidated the daily egg production and associated reproductive processes of egg bearing copepod. Herein, we present an individual-based model which constitutes a realistic representation of the reproduction in egg bearing copepods. The model has been parameterized using an extensive set of experimental data obtained from the literature and from the laboratory and field experiments on the estuarine copepod Eurytemora affinis. The proposed model takes into account the adult female longevity, the clutch size and interclutch duration, which is a function of egg maturation time and latency time required by the female after egg hatching to produce a new clutch. The embryonic development time and hatching success are also taken into account. The effect of temperature on the means and variances of above-mentioned reproductive parameters has been also incorporated. A multi agent system based generic platform “Mobidyc” has been used to generate and calibrate the model. The model demonstrates the reproductive parameters of females of E. affinis which is validated through individual based experiments. Temperature specific simulations provide a dynamical explanation of temperature effect on the cumulative egg production. The daily survival principally affects the number of clutches produced per female during its life span. The results obtained in the present study by combining temperature and survival effects reveal the relatively greater importance of the first factor on the daily egg production of egg-carrying copepods. The present model is generic and hence easily applicable to other animals with comparable reproductive strategy.     

FUZZY ITERATION METHODOLOGY FOR RESERVOIR FLOOD CONTROL OPERATION1

ABSTRACT: Reservoir flood control is operated in real time so finding the optimal solution is unnecessary since it may not be practical. The key to reservoir flood control operation is quickly generating some feasible and effective alternatives and then selecting one among them. A fuzzy iteration methodology, which gives the objective weight and the relative membership degree of alternatives at the same time, is presented. Since the weight and relative membership degree are directly acquired from the recommended alternatives provided by decision makers, the results are more reasonable and realistic. Besides, the difficulty in giving weights is also avoided. With the aid of a robust and flexible decision support system, the effectiveness of decision making can be improved.     

钼酸铵生产废液的综合治理

钼酸铵生产过程中产生的酸性废液,经中和,过滤,滤渣热碱浸取、滤液蒸发浓缩等步骤,可回收废液中的７９％的钼,并获得ＮＨ４ＮＯ３、ＮＨ４Ｃｌ混合液体肥料。     

陆地生态系统净第一性生产力过程模型研究综述

陆地生态系统净第一性生产力的模拟已从统计模型发展到过程模型时代。过程模型从机理上对植物的生物物理过程以及影响因子进行分析和模拟,理论框架完整,结构严谨。论文从植物器官、个体、冠层、景观以及区域等不同尺度对过程模型进行分析。近年来,由于遥感和GIS技术的支持,使得遥感过程模型融合了遥感及时、准确、宏观、多尺度的优势而成为当前生产力模型的主攻方向。遥感过程模型可实现生态系统NPP的及时模拟和动态监测,便捷、准确地反映NPP的时空变化格局。而在NPP建模过程中,尺度转换是所面临的一个重要问题。不同尺度模型间扩展时,需要采取相应的数学手段进行尺度转换,同时遥感和GIS技术提供了尺度转换的有力工具。综观我国NPP研究的发展,起步晚、发展快是其特点。虽然取得了大量的研究成果,但过程模型的建模方面还很不足,这是一个亟待解决的问题。     

木薯乙醇-汽油混合燃料生命周期排放多目标优化研究

建立了木薯乙醇-汽油混合燃料生命周期排放单目标和多目标优化模型.以生命周期CO,NO_x,PM,HC,SO_x,CO₂排放为优化目标,对木薯乙醇-汽油混合燃料生命周期排放进行了单目标及多目标优化,并进行了灵敏度分析.结果表明:多目标优化后木薯乙醇-汽油混合燃料的混合比例为63%.与原始值相比,多目标优化后生命周期CO排放略有升高,NO_x升高15%,PM升高19%;生命周期HC、SO_x和CO₂分别降低8%、50%和21%.